技术系统的概率风险分析 给定初始状态下最终事件率的估计（1.0 版

[中文适用范围]： 本文件为由电工项目组成的系统提供概率风险分析（以下简称风险分析）指南，适用（但不限于）所有进行风险分析的电工行业。本文件从风险分析的角度讨论以下主题： ?C 定义基本术语和概念； ?C 指定事件的类型； ?C 对事件的发生进行分类； ?C 描述了 ETA@ FTA 和马尔可夫技术的修改符号和图形表示方法的使用，以将这些修改技术补充地应用于复杂系统； ?C 建议处理复杂系统事件频率的方法； ?C 建议基于风险监控来估计事件频率的方法； ?C 提供说明性和实际的例子。表 1 描述了本文件涵盖的事件与相关风险之间的关系。风险定义为不确定性对目标的影响（见 3.1.1）。这里假设不确定性由两个要素组成：认知的和偶然的。认知分为已知和未知@，偶然的效果分别分为受控和非受控@。因此，与影响受控的已知事件相关的风险是受控风险，与影响不受控制的已知事件相关的风险是不受控风险。有利的元风险是即使该未知事件出现，其影响也可以随意控制的未知事件，不利的元风险是其影响无法控制的未知事件。例如@由电工项目的随机硬件故障引起的风险将被分为受控风险和非受控风险@，而由软件错误引起的风险可被分为有利或不利的元风险。本文件涵盖了可假定随机且独立于时间发生的事件所导致的受控和非受控风险（参见条款 6@ 9.1@ 9.2@ 9.5 和条款 B.3）。 [外文原描述]： IEC TR 63039:2016(E) provides guidance on probabilistic risk analysis (hereafter referred to as risk analysis) for the systems composed of electrotechnical items and is applicable (but not limited) to all electrotechnical industries where risk analyses are performed. This document deals with the following topics from the perspective of risk analysis: - defining the essential terms and concepts; - specifying the types of events; - classifying the occurrences of events; - describing the usage of modified symbols and methods of graphical representation for ETA, FTA and Markov techniques for applying those modified techniques complementarily to the complex systems; - suggesting ways to handle the event frequency/rate of complex systems; - suggesting ways to estimate the event frequency/rate based on risk monitoring; - providing illustrative and practical examples. Please refer to the Introduction and Scope of the document for addition information regarding the events covered by and associated risks. This document defines the basic properties of events from the perspective of probabilistic risk analysis and use of dependability-related techniques for the analysis of occurrence of the final event that results in a final state in which the final consequences of a risk may appear. Keywords: probabilistic risk analysis, effects of uncertainty, events and associated risks